Dissecting the Phaneuf Trade

I hate the Leafs, let me put that right out there. My hatred for them is trying to sku my opinion on the Phaneuf trade, attempting to convince myself that the Leafs got the raw end of the deal. In all honestly, I really don't know who got the better of the deal, or maybe each team got exactly what they wanted, something different.

The Leafs are second last in the league, and as a fantasy holder of Kiprusoff, Calgary was in the midst of what felt like a thousand losses in a row (1-6-3 in last 10). Each team clearly needed to make some changes to their line-ups, but I will admit that I was a bit surprised by the trade.

Phaneuf seems to be something of a wizard, able to convince people that he is better than he actually is. I have some friends who live in Calgary, and I'll bet every one of them is happy that Phaneuf is gone. Take, for instance, this quote from Jonathan Stoddart, former Clark's Harbour Foggie, current Calgary resident:

"...Unfortunately, you can also tell him that I have been in Calgary watching Phaneuf for his whole career. Usually if the Flames give up some terrible goal, you can whip your head around and see number 3 scratching his head and wondering whether perhaps he should have paying more attention to defense. Get ready for a few power play goals, and some good body checking, but a whole lot of defensive liability."

Phaneuf represents, to a certain extent, a symbol of escalation of commitment on behalf of the Calgary management. When someone is drafted really high (9th overall, in this case), management tends to stick with that person longer than they otherwise would, realizing they've gone all in. This might be a bit premature, considering that Phaneuf is still only 24. I've always thought the same thing about MA Fleury. Sure, he's turned it around, but if he hadn't of been a number one pick, he would have been working a Dunder Mifflin in Scranton. Granted, goalies take longer to develop, so I think they threw him in the deep end a bit too quickly. I'm not saying Phaneuf isn't a good player, he is. But at a cap hit of $6.5 million a year? Not quite. His offensive stats are good, but his defense is questionable at best.

Plus/Minus is a stat that I value both for myself as a player, and for any player that I hold in my fantasy leagues. Taking a look at the +/- stats for the first five seasons of some top defencemen in the game today, Phaneuf tends to be quite a bit behind.

Phaneuf +19
Pronger +29
Niedermayer +67
Lidstrom +130

And although this may be an unfair comparison, over his first five seasons, Bobby Orr was +359. I also checked into Zdeno Chara, and over his first five seasons he was -31, and he's turned out OK. I also don't suspect Dion's +/- will increase now that he is on a team that apparently doesn't care if they ever score any goals (remember when they decided to carry five goalies?) Dealing Matt Stajan and Niklas Hagman will certainly decrease their scoring, and considering they were 20th in goals scored, they should fall a few spots in that category. However, they are currently in last place with 197 goals against. If JS Giguere can return to form he might be able to help that. The jury is still out on whether or not Phaneuf can.

Calgary actually sits behind Toronto in goals scored, but having Stajan and Hagman will undoubtedly increase that. I actually wanted to get Stajan on my fantasy team, but there are no other centers I'd be willing to give up for him. It'll be interested to see if he sticks around in Calgary after he becomes a UFA after this season. He was playing in his hometown in Toronto, which can be a blessing and a curse. Perhaps he'll welcome to opportunity to play outside of a fish bowl and sign long-term with Calgary. After all, he'll pay less taxes.

As for the other pieces of the puzzle, some of them are throw-aways (Sjostrom, Meyers), but Keith Aulie, a hulking defenseman, could wind up being a big piece in this trade, although he is expected to report to the Marlies for now. Ian White is an offensive defenseman, but I'm not sure that's what Calgary needs right now. Although, he will be able to reproduce the kind of offensive numbers that Phaneuf did.

I also think that both sides should give Mark Giordano a bit pat on the back. If it wasn't for his emergence this season, the Flames probably wouldn't have given up Phaneuf. Giordano's numbers are almost identical to Phaneuf's, and yet he is making $850,000 this year and next, compared to Phaneuf's $6.5 million.

I think this might be a rare win-win for both teams. But if all else fails, at least Calgary got a guy with a wicked moustache.